2026 Economic Outlook
Each year, the National Small Business Association (NSBA) conducts a comprehensive survey of small businesses across the country to provide critical data on how the small-business community in the U.S. is faring. Now in its 20th year, the NSBA Small Business Economic Report has been broadly cited on key indicators including economic outlook, business confidence, growth, hiring, financing, policy and a host of other key indicators. Each year we focus on a particular issue facing America’s small-business community, and this year we focused on federal trade policy.
The 2026 Report shows a small-business community facing increased costs, economic insecurity and a hesitancy to embark on any significant growth. More businesses today are not seeking external financing than at any point since we’ve been doing the survey. This underscores slower anticipated growth rates and a generally stagnant small-business economy.
There has been a drop among small-business owners who anticipate a flat or recessionary economy - today, one-third of business owners say they believe there will be economic expansion in the coming year.
While a slight improvement from last year, today, just one-third of small-business owners say that today's economy is better than it was six months ago. Comparing with the economy in 2025, more than half of small-business owners say they believe that the economy is worse today than it was one year ago.
Compared to one year ago, would you say the national economy is:
This is a drop from last year, still likely having an impact on small-business owners plans for growth, financing, and hiring.
The number of small businesses that reported an increase in revenues over the past year was at its lowest point in more than a decade. Similarly, those reporting net decreases in revenue was at its highest since 2012.
Just 18 percent of small-business owners report they hired in the past year while 21 percent say they reduced their workforce, resulting in a net deficit where hiring is concerned.
How did your gross sales/revenues change over the last 12 months?
Furthermore, anticipated hiring remains stagnant - more than half of small-business owners do not plan to hire in the coming year.
How much do you expect your number of employees to change over the next 12 months?
Anticipated hiring remains stagnant with more than half of small-business owners saying they do not plan to hire in the coming year.
When it comes to financing, we saw small businesses pull back on seeking external financing. More businesses today are not seeking external financing than at any point since we’ve been doing the survey – underscoring slower anticipated growth rates.
What types of financing has your company used within the last 12 months to meet your capital needs?
There also was a drop in SBA lending, partially driven by increased lending restrictions since the outset of 2025.
Economic uncertainty remains the top concern for America's small-business owners with U.S. political instability a close second. The cost of health insurance increased in importance--bumping up to pre-pandemic levels of concern.
Which of the following issues do you believe are most important to your small business for Congress and the administration to address?
When it comes to federal policy, “end the partisan gridlock and work together” is the number one thing small businesses want Congress and the Administration to address—this indicator jumped significantly over the past year and is the highest it's been since we began asking the question in 2012.
Responses abbreviated for Executive Summary.
When it comes to trade and tariffs, just three percent of small businesses say tariffs have positively impacted their business while nearly half say they have been negatively impacted.
How have new tariffs in the past year impacted your business?
The majority of small businesses say they have incurred increased costs, and among those, 74 percent say those cost increases are due to tariffs.
What is your overall view of the current trade and tariff policy?
Nearly half of small-business respondents say they believe the current trade and tariff policy is on the wrong track.
Yet, despite several fairly negative indicators, small-business owners remain overall optimistic. Today, while just 1-in-4 small business owners say they are “very confident” in the future of their business, the majority DO express confidence. This is particularly important given that small-business confidence was at an all-time low last year, partly due to the timing of the 2025 survey being at the height of the administrations’ tariffs implementation.
From a financial perspective, how do you feel right now about the future of your business?
The fact that two-thirds of small-business owners remain confident underscores the inherent positivity and optimism in most small-business owners—and the need for policymakers NOT to stand in the way or create unnecessary boundaries for small-business growth.
NSBA's survey collection provides small-business data and firsthand perspective analysis from the nation's most important economic community. Each survey includes an executive summary on notable data and analysis, as well as focused insights on the latest small-business policy effects and developments.
View the full 2026 Economic Report here.
NSBA wishes to thank our members and the hundreds of small-business supporters who continue to participate in our annual Economic Report survey.
